A Septillion Chance of Occurring? It Was Obviously a Miracle

by Shmuel Goldstein

Elazar the Priest was dressed with the Urim VeTumim, and said (with Ruach Hakodesh): “Zevulun will be picked – and Akko (Zevulun’s [future] region in Eretz Israel) will be picked with it”.

The Nossi then put his hand into the ballot box, took out 2 papers – and low and behold! – the first paper was the name Zevulun, and the second paper was none other than Akko – exactly as predicted by Elazar.

This miracle repeated itself for each tribe [until (but not including-) the last one, when there were only 2 papers left, which was natural and not in need of a miracle – since there were only two pieces of “lottery” left to pick.]

The Analysis :

The probability that the first paper picked from the ballot is the paper with the name Zevulun – as predicted by Elazar – is:

P(tribe=Zevulun)=1/24

And the probability that the 2nd paper picked from the ballot box is the region of Akko is:

P(region =Akko )=1/23

Therefore, the total probability is:

P(tribe=Zevulun and region =Akko)=1/24×1/23=1/552

The lottery continues, and Elazar says: “Naftoli will be picked – and Ginosar (Naftoli’s [future] region in Eretz Israel) will be picked with it”.

The Nossi puts his hand into the ballot box – and the second consecutive miracle happens: The first paper is Naftoli, and the 2nd paper is Ginosar.

The probability that the 3rd paper picked is the paper with the name Naftoli is:

P(tribe=Naftoli)=1/22

And the probability that the 4th paper picked is the region of Ginosar is:

P(region =Ginosar )=1/21

Therefore, the total probability is:

P(event 1 ; tribe=Naftoli and region =Ginosar)=1/552 x 1/22×1/21=1/255024 […][skip to end] P(event 12 )= P(event 11 ) x 1/2×1≈0.0000000000000000000000161174%

The probability of event 12 happening is 1 in 62,044,840,173,324,000,000,000,000 – really unlikely; well – it was A MIRACLE By G-D!